Happy February, friends! I know we’re all still adjusting to writing “2026” on everything, but I wanted to share some really interesting data that came out about January’s housing market. Grab your coffee, because there’s a lot to unpack – and honestly, it’s kind of exciting!

The Big Picture: We’re Moving Toward Balance

Here’s the headline I want you to remember: 2026 is shaping up to be what experts are calling “the most balanced housing market since the pandemic.” And after the absolute rollercoaster we’ve all been on these past few years, that’s exactly what we need.

What does “balanced” actually mean? It means we’re finally getting to a place where neither buyers nor sellers have all the power. It’s not a wild seller’s market where homes fly off the market in 24 hours with 10 competing offers. And it’s not a buyer’s market where properties sit for months. It’s… normal. Or at least, it’s heading in that direction.

The Inventory Story: Good News with a Little “But…”

Let’s talk about what’s available out there, because this is where things get interesting. As of January, we’re seeing active listings up 10% compared to last year – that’s the 27th consecutive month of inventory gains! If you’ve been house hunting, you’ve probably noticed you actually have options now, which is such a welcome change.

But here’s the catch (there’s always a catch, right?): even with these gains, we’re still about 17% below where inventory was in the 2017-2019 timeframe. Think of it like this – we’ve been climbing out of a pretty deep hole, and while we’re making progress, we’re not quite back to ground level yet.

I’m seeing this play out differently across the country. Some areas in the West are absolutely crushing it with inventory growth, while others are still pretty tight. Here in our local market, I’m keeping a close eye on these trends and can give you specific insights about our area if you’re curious.

What’s Happening with Prices?

Now for the million-dollar question (or should I say, the $399,900 question – that’s the current national median list price!). Prices have been holding remarkably steady. We’re not seeing the crazy year-over-year jumps we saw during the pandemic, and we’re also not seeing dramatic drops.

Nationally, home prices are expected to grow by about 2.2% this year. I know that might sound discouraging if you’re a buyer, but here’s the silver lining: when you adjust for inflation, real home prices are actually declining slightly for the second year in a row. Translation? Your dollar is stretching a bit further than it was.

And here’s what really gets me excited: wages are growing faster than home prices right now! That means affordability is actually improving, even if it doesn’t feel like a dramatic shift.

The Regional Divide You Need to Know About

This is super important, so pay attention: not all markets are behaving the same way. It’s like we’re watching two different movies playing out across the country.

In the Midwest and Northeast, home prices are climbing more significantly – in some cities, we’re talking 10% or more growth in 2026. Why? These areas haven’t had as much new construction, so inventory is staying tight and demand is strong.

Meanwhile, in parts of the South and West, especially areas that saw a construction boom during the pandemic, prices are actually softening. Some markets could see prices dip by as much as 10% this year.

What does this mean for you? Location, location, location matters more than ever. The national headlines are interesting, but what’s happening in YOUR specific market is what really counts.

Sales Are Ticking Up (Slowly But Surely)

Here’s something that makes me smile: existing home sales are projected to increase by about 1.7% to roughly 4.13 million properties in 2026. Okay, I know that doesn’t sound super impressive, but context matters. We’ve been near a 30-year low in home sales, so ANY movement upward is progress.

What’s driving this? A few things:

• Mortgage rates easing slightly (hovering around 6.3% instead of the 6.6% we saw in 2025)
• More inventory giving buyers actual choices
• Rising incomes making homeownership more attainable
• People finally getting tired of waiting and deciding to make their move

That last one is big. I’ve talked to so many people who’ve been sitting on the fence waiting for the “perfect” time, and they’re realizing that waiting indefinitely means missing out on life.

The Lock-In Effect Is Still Real

Let me be honest about something that’s still holding the market back: about 80% of current homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%. So if you’re sitting on a 3% rate from 2021, the idea of trading that for a 6.3% rate feels… painful. I get it. I really do.

This is keeping a lot of potential sellers from listing their homes, which is part of why inventory is still below where it should be. But here’s what I tell my clients: sometimes life circumstances are more important than interest rates. Growing families need space. Empty nesters want to downsize. Job relocations happen.

And honestly? If you’re trading a small home with a low rate for your dream home with a slightly higher rate, you’re still winning. You can always refinance later when rates drop, but you can’t get back the years you could have been living in the home you actually want.

What This Means for Buyers Right Now

If you’re thinking about buying, here’s my honest take: this is actually a pretty good time. You have more choices than you did a year ago, prices are growing more slowly, and mortgage rates are a bit more favorable. Plus, you’re getting in before the spring rush when competition really heats up.

Yes, rates are higher than they were a few years ago. Yes, prices are still elevated. But waiting for everything to be “perfect” might mean waiting forever. The market we’re in right now is significantly more buyer-friendly than what we’ve seen recently, and that’s worth something.

First-time buyers, I see you, and I know this is tough. Entry-level inventory is still tight, which makes the challenge real. But there ARE homes out there, and I have strategies to help you compete without breaking the bank.

What This Means for Sellers Right Now

For my sellers out there, listen up: you still have equity. If you’ve owned your home for a few years, you’re likely sitting on some really solid gains. But we are moving further into balanced territory, which means you need to be realistic about pricing and potentially more flexible on terms.

I’m seeing more sellers having to adjust their expectations – and some are even delisting and walking away when they can’t get their asking price. That’s a choice you can make if the timing isn’t right, but if you’re serious about selling, being competitive from day one makes all the difference.

The good news? If you’re selling to buy, you’re benefiting from both sides. Yes, you might get a bit less for your current home than you would have in 2022, but you’re also buying your next home in a less competitive environment with more negotiating power.

My Prediction for Spring

We’re heading into the traditional spring selling season, and I think we’re going to see steady, healthy activity. Not the chaos of 2021-2022, but not the sluggishness of 2024 either. Something in between. Something… dare I say… normal?

I expect more buyers to come off the sidelines as they realize rates aren’t dropping back to 3% anytime soon and decide to stop waiting. I expect sellers to list at more realistic prices and homes to move at a reasonable pace.

Bottom Line: There’s Opportunity Here

Look, I won’t sugarcoat it – this isn’t the easiest housing market we’ve ever seen. But it’s no longer the impossibly frustrating market of the past few years either. We’re making progress toward something healthier and more sustainable.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options, there are opportunities out there right now. You just need someone in your corner who understands the nuances of this market and can help you navigate it strategically.

That’s where I come in.

Let’s Chat About Your Goals

I love talking real estate (shocking, I know!), and I especially love helping people figure out if now is the right time for THEM to make a move – regardless of what the national headlines say.

Every situation is different. Maybe now IS your time, or maybe it makes sense to wait a bit longer. Let’s look at your specific circumstances, your local market conditions, and create a plan that feels right for you.

Ready to explore what’s possible in 2026? Let’s connect! Whether you’re curious about what your home is worth, ready to start house hunting, or just want to understand what’s happening in our local market, I’m here to help.

Here’s to a balanced, hopeful, and exciting year in real estate!

Warmly,
Danielle

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Sources:

The data and statistics in this post are based on the following sources:

• Realtor.com® Housing Market Data (January 2026)
• National Association of Realtors (NAR) Market Reports
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
• U.S. Census Bureau Housing Statistics

Information is current as of February 2026. Market conditions vary by location. For specific data about our local market, please reach out for a personalized consultation.